By Scott L. Althaus
Due to the fact that so few humans seem acquainted with public affairs, one may perhaps query even if collective coverage personal tastes printed in opinion surveys adequately exhibit the distribution of voices and pursuits in a society. Scott Althaus' finished research of the connection among wisdom, illustration, and political equality (in opinion surveys) ends up in astonishing solutions. wisdom does topic, and how it really is allotted in society may cause collective personal tastes to mirror evaluations disproportionately. therefore, the examine can assist survey researchers, newshounds, politicians, and anxious voters larger have fun with the issues and potentials of using opinion polls to symbolize the people's voice.
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Additional info for Collective Preferences in Democratic Politics: Opinion Surveys and the Will of the People
8 Signals conveyed through aggregate means play an important role in work by Converse (1990), Stimson (1990, 1991), and Erikson, MacKuen, and Stimson (2002), and means are the primary measures of population true scores in classical test score theory. Converse and Stimson each suggest that the mean of the collective opinion should generally indicate the direction of the signal mean – that is, the mean of informed opinions only – relative to the midpoint of the response range. While the use of means to describe aggregate distributions is confined mostly to academic studies and professional reports, the use of modes – the category containing the largest number of respondents, whether a plurality or majority – is especially widespread in journalistic coverage of opinion surveys as well as in the interpretation of election outcomes.
Assumptions about the aggregation process in collective rationality models Two models of collective rationality have been proposed in recent years to support arguments that aggregate measures of opinion can be meaningful even when the individual opinions that make them up are not. Philip Converse (1990) bases his on the “black-and-white” model of the survey response introduced in an early and influential paper (Converse 1964). Because it posits only two kinds of opinion givers – those reporting real and stable attitudes, and those reporting completely random nonattitudes – this model has come under criticism for failing to fit empirical data.
The purported information-pooling benefits of aggregation turn out to be more illusion than magic. Not only are collective rationality mechanisms less useful for pooling information than is commonly supposed, but Chapter 3 shows that the assumptions of these models are usually violated in the opinion distributions of actual survey respondents. In contrast to collective rationality models described by Converse and by Page and Shapiro, this chapter develops a theory of information effects in collective preferences that explains why these violations occur.